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Tuesday, February 6, 2007
-5:02 AM
Stormy weather
China and Space
The Economist: January 27th 2007
Recently, China has demonstrated its anti-satellite capability by destroying one of its own weather satellites with a ground-launched ballistic missile. This test was instantly denounced as 'provocative' by other countries, such as Japan and Taiwan. However, one of the loudest outcries was made by America, who viewed the test as a threat to US space dominance.
America has long made mountains out of molehills regarding space rights, but there is reason to believe that this time it is genuinely concerned.
Most of its condemnations have been backed up with the unspoken threat of America's military and economic might. Usually, these have been enough to allow it to get its way. However, that looks set to change. America's military strength has been greatly reduced ever since the Clinton years. It no longer has enough troops to fulfil its its commitments around the world as well as fight a war on two fronts: both the current war in Iraq as well as putting up a strong defence of its other interests (like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and USA itself). Neither is its economy what it once was: ever since 9/11, its financial power took a blow it has yet to recover from. It no longer can use the threat of economic sanctions to influence other countries.
Even worse (for the USA), China knows it can call America's bluff. It is fully aware of America's plaguing issues and that it is unable to carry out any of its threats. As such, it has decided that it can safely ignore much of America's rhetoric. The latter's military is certainly in no shape to pose any threat to China, and China knows that America will lose out greatly if it applies a trade embargo.
Currently, America's condemnation and China's missile test are both posturing. The main difference is that China seems bent on pursuing its space programme until it becomes a real threat, whereas it remains unclear if America will actually take serious action in the near future.
(334 words)
